Real Estate and Home Sales for Clark County Cool (just slightly!) for October 2011
The Autumn Season is here, and Home Sales
and real estate in Vancouver
WA and Clark County cooled; Closed Volume slipped below 400 units, with
the 3-month rolling average sales price turning lower again. On the
positive note, Pending Sales are very strong - just under 500 units.
With the strength of the Pending Sales, along with the high level of home
refinancing activity occurring (to be sure, the ~4% home loan rates are causing
a Refi Boom!),we see it is highly likely some of the closings that may have made it by
the end of October instead, got pushed into early November.
We've previously noted the impacts to home sales in 2010 caused by the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit -- the first half of 2010 Boomed; while the second half collapsed. The positive elements for the 2011 home buying rally have been much lower home loan rates, combined with lower home prices. Thus, Affordability for Homes in Vancouver WA is at a 25+ year high!
Now, on to our report. This information is based on home sales entered into the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), and exclude sales of mobile homes.
For the first 10 months of 2011 we show 4,084 closed sales; compared to 4,047 for the same period in 2010. If this trend continues for the last 2 months of 2011 (and it should), we expect that 2011 will post a measurably higher sales volume what was recorded for real estate sales in 2011.
The Chart Below (prepared by John Slocum of
REMAX Vancouver WA, our resident statistician) shows
the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month rolling average of sales,
and the 12 month rolling average. This simple "smoothing" of the data
better helps illiustrate the short-term and longer term trends in the Clark
Conuty homes / real estate market.
The next chart below shows the Average home sales price trends (3 month and
12 month) for the same time period. As you can see, with the extended
higher level of purchasing activity we are seeing some support for home sales prices,
while the outlook is still "soft."
Lastly, the Level of Available Inventory is an important indicator of market
health. We have found that a very high percentage of the "New" homes listing in the MLS are
merely prospective homes to be built and thus, we have no good way to scrub out
the phantom homes from the actual finished or near-finished product.
Therefore, in search of a meaningful Inventory Statistic, we run the report
excluding homes built in 2011. The result is our best approximation of a
Resold Home Inventory calculation of 5.6 months -- a number that is
substantially lower than last year, and another indication that home prices
could rise with a continued higher level of demand. In contrast, the RMLS
is using a a number drawing from the "New" home segment, and showing a total
Inventory of 7.2 months. Clearly, removing the "new homes" that don't truly
exist from our analysis provides a better reporting of this statistic.
Charts: For the enthusiasts that like to examine charts, we have the sales results for the Resold Inventory (excludes new homes) by Community that you may find helpful:
Clark County WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Battle Ground WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Camas WA Home Sales Results and Charts
La Center WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Ridgefield WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Vancouver WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Washougal WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Please let us know if you have any specific questions or comments!
Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired. We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.