Sunday, January 1, 2012

Home Sales Report for Vancouver and Clark County WA Novermeber 2011

Home Sales for Vancouver WA & Clark County with Seasonal Slowing for November 2011

Cooler weather has arrived, and Home Sales for Vancouver WA and Clark County have also shown the typical seasonal slowing, with Closed Volume lowering to 338 units, and the 3-month rolling average sales price is now below the 12-month rolling average.  Pending Sales were again very strong - at 426 units.  With the strength of the Pending Sales, combined with a high level of home refinancing activity occurring (to be sure, the-now-sub-4% home loan rates are causing a Refi Boom!), we are clearly on track to beat last years sales levels.

Affordability Index for real estate and Homes in Vancouver WA is n0w at a 18+ year high (as we've recently reported)!  Thus, our near-term to medium-term outlook for home buyers is Very Positive.

The information we use below is based on home sales entered into the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of mobile homes.

For the first 11 months of 2011 there are 4,447 closed sales; compared to 4,359 for the same period in 2010.  If this trend continues for the last month of 2011 (and it should), we are confident 2011 will post a higher sales volume compared to the total real estate sales in 2011.

This Chart Below (prepared by John Slocum of Vancouver WA REMAX, our resident statistician) shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month rolling average number of sales, and the 12 month rolling average.  This simple "smoothing" of the data better helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in the Clark County homes / real estate market.
Vancouver WA and Clark County Home Sales Volume Trends

The next chart below shows the Average home sales price trends (3 month and 12 month) for the same time period.  As can be seen, the extended higher level of purchasing activity is clearly providing support for home sales prices, with the outlook as "Firming up."
Vancouver WA Home Sales Price Trends

Finally, the Level of Available Inventory is another important indicator of market health.  When we smooth the statistical "noise" of the "New" homes listing in the MLS, we find a more meaningful inventory estimate.  The result is our best approximation of a Resold Home Inventory calculation of 5.6 months Clark County-wide (4.9 months for the sum of Vancouver zip codes) -- a number that is substantially lower than last year, and another indication that home prices should remain firm with a similar level of demand.  In contrast, the RMLS is using a a number drawing from both the Resale and "New" home segments, and showing a total Inventory of 6.8 months.  Clearly, removing the New Homes provides a better picture of move-in ready homes on the market.

Charts:  For the enthusiasts that like to examine charts, we have the sales results for the Resold Inventory (excludes new homes) by Community that you may find helpful:

Clark County WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Battle Ground WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Camas WA Home Sales Results and Charts
La Center WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Ridgefield WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Vancouver WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Washougal WA Home Sales Results and Charts

Please let us know if you have any specific questions or comments!

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

Hyper Smash

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