Thursday, February 27, 2014

Condo Market Report for Vancouver WA - Annual 2013 Recap

Vancouver's Condo Market in 2013 Shows Improvement in Units Sold, ending the Year with Little Price Change, and a Reduction in Distressed Sales.

The Vancouver WA Condo Real Estate Market (we count Attached homes + Condos) is a modest subset of the overall real estate market, coming in at 8.5% of the total units sold.  2013 was a relatively good year for Condos, with these highlights:
  • Condo Values changed little, with the end of the year showing the 3-Month Moving Average down 2.76% over the prior year; and the 12-Month Moving Average closed up 1.35%
  • The Year End Price Trend was sharply Downward for the 3-Month Moving Average and Flat-to-Slightly-Downward for the 12-Month Moving Average
  • The Absorption Rate at the end of the year was: 126 Days for Vancouver Condos - Still in the Moderate "Seller's Market" Range.
  • Approximately 321 Resale Condos were sold in 2013, which is about 36 (12.6%) more condos than in 2012.
  • REO/Bank Owned Condo sales were 72 units (22.4% of total); down from 97 (34.0%) in 2012.  This is consistent with the other cities in Clark County.
  • Short Sale /Pre-Foreclosure property sales were 84 units (26.2% of total); compared to 80 (28.1%) in 2012.
As November's Real Estate Update illustrated, the Autumn season is typically slower, and combined with the economic uncertainty by the shut-down of the US federal government, caused Clark County and Vancouver to see the first significant pause in rising prices in this recovery phase.

Now for the Condo Charts!  This first chart tallies the number of Resale Condos Sold (Excludes New Construction), with a short term trend line equaling the 3-month Moving Average; and the longer term trend line equaling the 12-month Moving Average.  We use this modest "smoothing" technique, as the Condo Market in Vancouver is considered small from a statistical point of view, and the monthly numbers jump quite wildly - a behavior we try to tame to better allow the true tends to be visible.
Vancouver Washington Condo Sales 2013 - Units Sold Vancouver WA Resale Condo Sales - Units Sold Trend 2013
With Condos a part of our recent overall Vancouver real estate market report this trend line looks somewhat different, if not contrary to the main Vancouver Report - again, this is owing to the relatively small number of units sold each month.  However, the 12 month trend-line shows clearly that condo sales have been improving month-over-month for the past 2.5 years or so.

Next we'll look at the results for Average Condo Prices, with the 3-month moving average line (in red) jumping around quite wildly. This is where the 12-month line (in blue) better defines the trend taking place for any point in time in the market.  It is our opinion we have seen the major "bottom" for prices, although there are still great condo deals out there, as we still have a relatively high level of distressed condo sales within the overall condo market.
Vancouver WA Condo Sales 2013 - Average Sales Price Trends Vancouver WA Resale Condo Sales - Average Sales Price Trend

The final series of chats below show the month-by-month action for Unit Sales, Average & Median Prices; and Days on Market:
Charts of Vancouver WA Condo Sales Trends in 2013 Vancouver Condo Sales Inventory & Days on Market Trends
These final 3 charts clearly show how relatively brisk the market was in the summer of 2013, with higher Unit Volume, and fewer Days on the Market!  Also of note is the Steep Decline in New Listings (similar to the decline in SFR - Detached listings) at the end of the Year.  Home prices may well be firm if the supply of homes for sale becomes any tighter.

If 2014 is going to behave in a fashion similar to 2013, the first quarter of the year will be the time for Sellers to get their homes ready to sell; and for Buyers the best bargains will be right now!

PS - Visit the Condo Real Estate Search for Vancouver WA page our website, where we have made it Easy to search by Neighborhood, with condo listings from the entire RMLS.  Sign-up Not Required!

PPS - the buzz with our team and at the RE/MAX office is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly.  Don't delay with your Condo Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!

The charts in this report (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on condo sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of newly constructed condos; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average.  This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Vancouver's Condo market.

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

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