Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Real Estate and Home Sales Market Recap for Vancouver WA in 2013

2013's Real Estate Market for Vancouver Shows a Strong Increase in Units Sold, ending with a Slow-down for Rising Prices

Real Estate and Home Sales in 2013 was very good, with excellent improvement in many areas, with these highlights:

  • Real Estate Values Gained at the end of the year, with the 3-Month Moving Average up 5.77% over 2012; and the 12-Month Moving Average increased 12.4%
  • The end of year Price Trend turned sharply Downward for the 3-Month Moving Average and went Flat for the 12-Month Moving Average
  • The End of Year Absorption Rate was: 108 Days for Vancouver (vs. 115 Days for Clark County) - Still well in the "Seller's Market" Range.
  • Approx. 3,812 Resale Homes closed in 2013, about 467 (13.96%) more than in 2012.
  • REO/Bank Owned house & condo sales were 439 units (11.5% of total); a decrease from 505 (15.1%) in 2012.  This is matches the other cities in Clark County.
  • /Pre-Foreclosure/Short Sale property sales were 590 units (15.5% of total); a decrease from 710 (21.2%) in 2012.

Fall is traditionally a slower season in this market, and combined this year with the economic uncertainty by the shut-down of the US government, caused Clark County and Vancouver WA to see the first significant pause in rising prices in the past 2 years.

Now for our Charts!  This first graphic shows the number of Resale Homes Sold (we Exclude New Construction), with a short term trend line (in Red) equaling the 3-month Moving Average; and the longer term trend line (in Blue) equaling the 12-month Moving Average.

Vancouver Washington Home Sales 2013 - Units Sold Vancouver WA Resale Home Sales - Units Sold Trend 2013

Vancouver is the largest city in Clark County, and its trend line seems to look quite a bit like the total for the County.  However, Vancouver's 3 month trend-line shows much bolder moves, up and down, for the year; with the 12 month line produced a nice up-move before leveling off. Without a doubt the improved number of home-units sold is a welcome improvement for this market.

Now for the current action on Home Prices, with this next graphic showing a strong move up of about $30,000 for the 3-month line, only to have it retreat $15,000 in the final months of the year.  The 12-month line improved nicely about $23,000, with a slight leveling at the end of the year. We also have the 3 month line now lower than the 12-month line, which is something to watch in the next few months.  For now this may be too early to determine the level of significance, as any correcting market is likely to have periods of "sideways" action.

Vancouver WA Home Sales 2013 - Average Sales Price Trends Vancouver WA Resale Home Sales - Average Sales Price Trend

The final chart series show the month-by-month action for Unit Sales, Average & Median Prices; and Days on Market:

Charts of Vancouver WA Home Sales Trends in 2013 Vancouver Home Sales Inventory & Days on Market Trends

From the last charts it is clear to see how Strong the housing market was in the summer of 2013, with higher Unit Volume, higher Average Prices; and fewer Days on the Market!  Also, it is important to observe is the Steep Decline in New Listings at the end of the Year.  Home prices early in 2014 may rise quickly again if the supply of homes for sale becomes any tighter.

In our opinion the first quarter of 2014 will be the time for Sellers to get their homes ready to sell; and for Buyers the best bargains will be right now!

PS - Visit the Home and Real Estate Search for Vancouver page our website, where it is Easy to search by Neighborhood or by Category, with house and real estate listings from the entire RMLS!

PPS - from the water cooler at the RE/MAX office is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly.  Don't delay with your Home Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!

Graphics and charts in this report (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on home sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding manufactured home sales; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average.  This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Clark County's real estate market.

Disclaimer: as with any real estate market statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but, not guaranteed.

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