Saturday, March 8, 2014

Waterfront Luxury Condo Market Report for Vancouver WA - Recap of 2013

Vancouver's Waterfront Luxury Condo Market in 2013 Was Very Slow!

Vancouver Washington is in a unique position for Waterfront Luxury Condos, offering two (2) excellent locations right on the Columbia River's North Shore, with four (4) separate properties.  The information we provide here will have been reported in the Vancouver MLS, and won't cover any private-party sales.

We will also include in the calculation any waterfront condo priced over $300,000 and over 1,000 sqft in size.

With such a small data-set of condo properties to report, any of the statistics reported must be interpreted with care; as each property is unique, with each home's upgrades and style, combined with view can greatly affect the sales price (or, failure to sell).

      Summary View for 2013 Luxury Waterfront Condo Sales

  • Five (5) Luxury Condos Sold; Averaging 2,056 sqft in size; $380 per sqft, and the Average Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM) was 370.
     
  • Six (6) Condos are still Active and were on the market in 2013; Averaging 2,067 sqft in size; priced at an average of $351 per sqft.; with the average CDOM at 195.
     
  • Sixteen (16) Condos did Not Sell AND came off the market; Averaging 2,108 sqft in size; priced at an average of $372 per sqft.; and the average CDOM was 459.
     
  • Sales by Condominium Property:
        -    Columbia Shores Condos: One (1) Fourth-floor Tower unit, facing the river;
        -    Meriwether Condos: One (1) Third-floor unit;
        -    The Sahalie Condos: Three (3) New units;
        -    Tidewater Cove Condos: Zero (0).
     

Compared to the overall Vancouver Condo scene, this sub-set of the market has been quite anemic, at best.  It is our opinion there are three main reasons more of these condos have not sold: 

  1. they have been Over-Priced relative to both General and Specific market conditions;
  2. the Luxury Home Market in Vancouver has been a Buyer's Market, with detached Luxury Homes providing a Better Offer and posting more sales;
  3. and finally, Condo financing, especially for the "Jumbo" category disappeared for quite a while, and is just now returning to help with financing purchase - making Condo homes in this price range available almost exclusively to Cash buyers.

With the rather recent improvement in Luxury Home Financing (aka Jumbo Loans); combined with a rather strong Seller's market where the target buyers will be coming from, we expect 2014 to post modestly better, if not far superior results than in 2013
 


PS - Visit the Luxury Waterfront Condo Real Estate Search for Vancouver WA page our website, where we have made it Easy to search by Neighborhood, with condo listings from the entire RMLS.  Sign-up Not Required!

PPS - the buzz is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly, with several homes Pending or Sold already.  Don't delay with your Luxury Condo Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!



The information in this report (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on waterfront luxury condo sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS).

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Home Sales Market Report for Battle Ground WA - 2013 Recap

Good Improvement in Battle Ground's Real Estate Market for 2013; Home Prices Increased; Resale Unit Volume also Increased

Results for real estate sales in Battle Ground WA improved nicely in 2013 with these highlights:
  • Property Values Were Up at year end, with the 3-Month Moving Average up 3.5% over 2012; and the 12-Month Moving Average went up 8.2%
     
  • End of Year Price Trend was slightly Up for the 3-Month Moving Average and also Trending Up for the 12-Month Moving Average
     
  • The Absorption Rate was: 111 Days for Battle Ground (vs. 115 Days for Clark County) - Very much in the "Seller's Market" Range.
     
  • Approx. 430 Resale Homes were sold in 2013, which is 11 (2.6%) more homes than in 2012.
     
  • Bank Owned / REO property sales were 42 properties (9.8% of total); down from 70 (16.7%) in 2012.  This is consistent with the other areas in Clark County.
     
  • Short Sale  property sales were 69 units (16.0% of total); down from 94 (22.4%) in 2012.
As reported last month's Real Estate Update  Autumn is traditionally slower for real estate sales, and combined this year with the economic uncertainty by the shut-down of the US government, caused  Clark County and Vancouver to see the first significant retreat from rising prices in this phase of the economic cycle.  Battle Ground was affected by this to some extent however, being a smaller market, statistically speaking, the impact was not as readily measurable.

Before we get to Battle Ground's Charts - Battle Ground is a relatively small town and thus, the graph-lines won't look that Smooth when compared to the same charts for Vancouver or Clark County; as there can be a wide variability in Units Sold or Average Price from month to month.  Therefore, when we add the 12-month moving average line for the long-term trend, we obtain a reasonable idea as to the market's direction.

This first chart shows the number of Resale Homes Sold (Excludes New Construction), with a short term trend line equaling the 3-month Moving Average; and the longer term trend line equaling the 12-month Moving Average.
Battle Ground Washington Home Sales 2013 - Units Sold Battle Ground WA Resale Home Sales - Units Sold Trend 2013
With Battle Ground only about 10% of Clark County, this trend line seems to have much variability.  However, the long-term trend line more reliably shows steady and positive improvement for the past 2 years.

Next we'll look at the current action on Average Home Sale Prices, with this next chart showing up-and-down movement through the year, and ending up about $9,269 for the 3-month line. The 12-month line move up steadily, increasing about $20,485 by end of the year. 

Also, unlike Clark County we also have the 3 month Average Price line still above the 12-month line, which indicates prices are likely still on their way upwards.
Battle Ground WA Home Sales 2013 - Average Sales Price Trends Battle Ground WA Resale Home Sales - Average Sales Price Trend

The final series of chats below show the month-by-month action for Unit Sales, Average & Median Prices; and Days on Market:
Charts of Battle GroundWA Home Sales Trends in 2013 Battle Ground Home Sales Inventory & Days on Market Trends
These final 3 charts clearly show how vigorous the market was in the summer of 2013, with higher Property-Unit Volume, higher Average Prices; and fewer Days on the Market!  Also of note is the Steep Decline in New Listings at the end of the Year.  Home prices for Battle Ground may rise quickly again if the supply of homes for sale becomes reduced any further.

If 2014 is going to behave in a fashion similar to 2013, the first quarter of the year will be the time for Sellers to get their homes ready to sell; and for Buyers the best bargains will be right now!


PS - Visit our Real Estate for sale Search for Battle Ground on our website, where we have made it Easy to search by Category or Neighborhood, with real estate listings from the entire RMLS.  Sign-up Not Required!

PPS - the buzz with our team and at the RE/MAX office is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly.  Don't delay with your Home Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!


The charts in this report (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on home sales recorded in the Battle Ground MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of mobile home; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average.  This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Battle Ground and Clark County's real estate market.

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Condo Market Report for Vancouver WA - Annual 2013 Recap

Vancouver's Condo Market in 2013 Shows Improvement in Units Sold, ending the Year with Little Price Change, and a Reduction in Distressed Sales.

The Vancouver WA Condo Real Estate Market (we count Attached homes + Condos) is a modest subset of the overall real estate market, coming in at 8.5% of the total units sold.  2013 was a relatively good year for Condos, with these highlights:
  • Condo Values changed little, with the end of the year showing the 3-Month Moving Average down 2.76% over the prior year; and the 12-Month Moving Average closed up 1.35%
     
  • The Year End Price Trend was sharply Downward for the 3-Month Moving Average and Flat-to-Slightly-Downward for the 12-Month Moving Average
     
  • The Absorption Rate at the end of the year was: 126 Days for Vancouver Condos - Still in the Moderate "Seller's Market" Range.
     
  • Approximately 321 Resale Condos were sold in 2013, which is about 36 (12.6%) more condos than in 2012.
     
  • REO/Bank Owned Condo sales were 72 units (22.4% of total); down from 97 (34.0%) in 2012.  This is consistent with the other cities in Clark County.
     
  • Short Sale /Pre-Foreclosure property sales were 84 units (26.2% of total); compared to 80 (28.1%) in 2012.
As November's Real Estate Update illustrated, the Autumn season is typically slower, and combined with the economic uncertainty by the shut-down of the US federal government, caused Clark County and Vancouver to see the first significant pause in rising prices in this recovery phase.

Now for the Condo Charts!  This first chart tallies the number of Resale Condos Sold (Excludes New Construction), with a short term trend line equaling the 3-month Moving Average; and the longer term trend line equaling the 12-month Moving Average.  We use this modest "smoothing" technique, as the Condo Market in Vancouver is considered small from a statistical point of view, and the monthly numbers jump quite wildly - a behavior we try to tame to better allow the true tends to be visible.
Vancouver Washington Condo Sales 2013 - Units Sold Vancouver WA Resale Condo Sales - Units Sold Trend 2013
With Condos a part of our recent overall Vancouver real estate market report this trend line looks somewhat different, if not contrary to the main Vancouver Report - again, this is owing to the relatively small number of units sold each month.  However, the 12 month trend-line shows clearly that condo sales have been improving month-over-month for the past 2.5 years or so.

Next we'll look at the results for Average Condo Prices, with the 3-month moving average line (in red) jumping around quite wildly. This is where the 12-month line (in blue) better defines the trend taking place for any point in time in the market.  It is our opinion we have seen the major "bottom" for prices, although there are still great condo deals out there, as we still have a relatively high level of distressed condo sales within the overall condo market.
Vancouver WA Condo Sales 2013 - Average Sales Price Trends Vancouver WA Resale Condo Sales - Average Sales Price Trend

The final series of chats below show the month-by-month action for Unit Sales, Average & Median Prices; and Days on Market:
Charts of Vancouver WA Condo Sales Trends in 2013 Vancouver Condo Sales Inventory & Days on Market Trends
These final 3 charts clearly show how relatively brisk the market was in the summer of 2013, with higher Unit Volume, and fewer Days on the Market!  Also of note is the Steep Decline in New Listings (similar to the decline in SFR - Detached listings) at the end of the Year.  Home prices may well be firm if the supply of homes for sale becomes any tighter.

If 2014 is going to behave in a fashion similar to 2013, the first quarter of the year will be the time for Sellers to get their homes ready to sell; and for Buyers the best bargains will be right now!


PS - Visit the Condo Real Estate Search for Vancouver WA page our website, where we have made it Easy to search by Neighborhood, with condo listings from the entire RMLS.  Sign-up Not Required!

PPS - the buzz with our team and at the RE/MAX office is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly.  Don't delay with your Condo Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!


The charts in this report (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on condo sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of newly constructed condos; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average.  This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Vancouver's Condo market.

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

Monday, February 17, 2014

Annual 2013 Real Estate Market Recap for Camas WA

Resale Homes see "Choppy" Price Action in the Camas WA Real Estate Market, with Fewer Distressed Properties and Increase in Units Sold.

The Camas real estate market appeared to be a year of reasonable improvement in 2013, with these highlights:


  • Mixed Prices Indexes ("Choppy"), Rising early but, by the end of the year the 3-Month Moving Average was Down -8.0%; while the 12-Month Moving Average was a positive 8.31%
     
  • End of the Year Prices Trended Steeply Downward for the 3-Month Moving Average, and were Flat-to-Dowward for the 12-Month Moving Average
     
  • End of Year Absorption Rate was 95 Days (compared to 108 Days for Vancouver) - Still very much in the range of a Strong "Seller's Market."
     
  • 464 Resale Homes (approx) closed in 2013, which is about 66 (16.6%) more units closed than in 2012.
     
  • Bank Owned / REO property sales were 39 units (8.4% of total); down from 44 (11.1%) in 2012.  This tracks with the decrease in Bank Owned homes for sale in Clark County.
     
  • /Pre-Foreclosure / Short Sale property sales were 49 units (10.6% of total); down from 77 (19.34%) in 2012.
We reported in last month's Real Estate Update for Clark County the Autumn season is usually slower, combined with the uncertainty the shut-down of the US government caused, Clark County real estate to see the first significant and sustained break in rising prices in this phase of the economic recovery.

Now for the Camas Charts! - The first one represents the number of Camas Resale Homes Sold (Excludes New Construction), with a short term trend line (in Red) calculated as a 3-Month Moving Average; and the longer term trend line (Blue line) equaling the 12-month Moving Average.

Camas Resale Home Sales 2013 - Units Sold Camas Resale Home Sales - Units Sold Trend 2013

This chart is clearly showing we are in the typical seasonal down-turn - shown by the 3-month (Red) Moving Average line; with the strongest season in the Summer. The longer-term 12-month Moving Average (Blue) line has remained in a somewhat narrow range for the past few years.

For Home Prices, this next chart shows quite "choppy" action with the 3-month/short-term trend line, to where it had risen high above the 12-Month line to then drop steeply, where in November it pierced the 12-month/long-term price trend line and continued falling!  The long-term trend line also shows a "leveling-to-downward" direction at the end of the year.

Camas Resale Home Sales 2013 - Average Sales Price Trends Camas Resale Home Sales - Average Sales Price Trend 2013

While the 3-Month Moving Average line is "choppy" (owing to the quite small market size of Camas), the Long Term trend (blue line) has shown a strong improvement over most of the year.  Thus, given reasonable stable-to-improving broader economic factors (jobs, un-employment, in-migration), we expect prices to continue a longer upward trend.


Charts of Camas WA Resale Home Sales Trends in 2013 Camas Resale Home Sales Inventory & Days on Market - 2013
Finally our last set of 3 charts shows the dynamics of the market throughout the year.  The top chart shows a surge of new listings in the Spring, followed by a surge of closed sales from May through August; which ties in with the Days on Market shrinking in the late Spring through early Fall as shown by the 3rd chart.  If 2014 performs in similar fashion, then the first quarter of the year is the time for Sellers to get their homes ready to sell; and for Buyers the best bargains in Camas are right now!

PS - Visit our website for the Camas Real Estate and Home Search page, where we have 16 neighborhood searches already set up in addition to 7 category searches, with real estate listings from the entire RMLS.

PPS - the buzz with our team and at the RE/MAX office is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly.  Don't delay with your Home Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!

This Repart and Charts (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on home sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of mobile home; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average.  This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in the Camas real estate market.

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Real Estate and Home Sales Market Recap for Vancouver WA in 2013

2013's Real Estate Market for Vancouver Shows a Strong Increase in Units Sold, ending with a Slow-down for Rising Prices

Real Estate and Home Sales in 2013 was very good, with excellent improvement in many areas, with these highlights:

  • Real Estate Values Gained at the end of the year, with the 3-Month Moving Average up 5.77% over 2012; and the 12-Month Moving Average increased 12.4%
     
  • The end of year Price Trend turned sharply Downward for the 3-Month Moving Average and went Flat for the 12-Month Moving Average
     
  • The End of Year Absorption Rate was: 108 Days for Vancouver (vs. 115 Days for Clark County) - Still well in the "Seller's Market" Range.
     
  • Approx. 3,812 Resale Homes closed in 2013, about 467 (13.96%) more than in 2012.
     
  • REO/Bank Owned house & condo sales were 439 units (11.5% of total); a decrease from 505 (15.1%) in 2012.  This is matches the other cities in Clark County.
     
  • /Pre-Foreclosure/Short Sale property sales were 590 units (15.5% of total); a decrease from 710 (21.2%) in 2012.

Fall is traditionally a slower season in this market, and combined this year with the economic uncertainty by the shut-down of the US government, caused Clark County and Vancouver WA to see the first significant pause in rising prices in the past 2 years.

Now for our Charts!  This first graphic shows the number of Resale Homes Sold (we Exclude New Construction), with a short term trend line (in Red) equaling the 3-month Moving Average; and the longer term trend line (in Blue) equaling the 12-month Moving Average.

Vancouver Washington Home Sales 2013 - Units Sold Vancouver WA Resale Home Sales - Units Sold Trend 2013

Vancouver is the largest city in Clark County, and its trend line seems to look quite a bit like the total for the County.  However, Vancouver's 3 month trend-line shows much bolder moves, up and down, for the year; with the 12 month line produced a nice up-move before leveling off. Without a doubt the improved number of home-units sold is a welcome improvement for this market.

Now for the current action on Home Prices, with this next graphic showing a strong move up of about $30,000 for the 3-month line, only to have it retreat $15,000 in the final months of the year.  The 12-month line improved nicely about $23,000, with a slight leveling at the end of the year. We also have the 3 month line now lower than the 12-month line, which is something to watch in the next few months.  For now this may be too early to determine the level of significance, as any correcting market is likely to have periods of "sideways" action.

Vancouver WA Home Sales 2013 - Average Sales Price Trends Vancouver WA Resale Home Sales - Average Sales Price Trend


The final chart series show the month-by-month action for Unit Sales, Average & Median Prices; and Days on Market:

Charts of Vancouver WA Home Sales Trends in 2013 Vancouver Home Sales Inventory & Days on Market Trends

From the last charts it is clear to see how Strong the housing market was in the summer of 2013, with higher Unit Volume, higher Average Prices; and fewer Days on the Market!  Also, it is important to observe is the Steep Decline in New Listings at the end of the Year.  Home prices early in 2014 may rise quickly again if the supply of homes for sale becomes any tighter.

In our opinion the first quarter of 2014 will be the time for Sellers to get their homes ready to sell; and for Buyers the best bargains will be right now!
 


PS - Visit the Home and Real Estate Search for Vancouver page our website, where it is Easy to search by Neighborhood or by Category, with house and real estate listings from the entire RMLS!

PPS - from the water cooler at the RE/MAX office is that 2014 is starting out Very Strongly.  Don't delay with your Home Selling or Buying Plans - Call Us Soon!



Graphics and charts in this report (prepared by Realtor® John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on home sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding manufactured home sales; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average.  This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Clark County's real estate market.

Disclaimer: as with any real estate market statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but, not guaranteed.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Real Estate Market ReCap for Vancouver WA 2011 Results

Short Sales and Foreclosures Tempered the Real Estate Recovery in 2011 for Vancouver WA

Late in the year 2010 many real estate economists expected the start of the Third and largest wave of Foreclosures in the USA.  We have reviewed the home sales dataˡ from the Vancouver MLS for the year 2011, and summarized it in a form that will let us illustrate the depth of this challenge to our local economy.

Homes For Sale in Vancouver WA -- Composition and Volume Level

A Sellers Market in Vancovuer WA?The Current Housing Inventory available for sale is the level of homes listed at any one time. The "Normal" level of inventory is about 6 months of supply (calculated by dividing the Active Listings by the Sold listings for that month).  Clark County started January 2011 with 11.7 months of supply (also known as a Buyers Market with abundant inventory relative to the number of home buyers); and ended the year with a 6.5 month level -- which is a substantial reduction during the year.  Removing the inventory of listings categorized as "New" the level is down to 4.8 months; and nearing the range of a Sellers Market!

Even with the greatly reduced level of housing for sale appearing to be a Sellers Market, the continued falling of prices is 2011 shows how powerful the Distressed property segment has been.

Over Half of the 2011 Vancouver WA Home Sales are Distressed Property Sales

The Vancouver MLS was updated in 2009 to allow the tracking of Foreclosures and Short Sales, which allows reporting here.  Another Distressed Property element are the homes purchased at the Foreclosure Auction by Flippers.  Many but not all of the Flipped homes (Flips) were listed and sold; as some were pre-sold and won't be tabulated here.  The Flip segment is also harder to gather all the data within RMLS thus, we'll only have an estimate for the Flips that were listed and sold.

From our review of the homes sold through the Vancouver MLS for the total year 2011, we believe that prediction of the Third and Largest wave of Foreclosures came true.  It is also a fact that a good number of Short Sales are still awaiting their offers to be approved by the bank from the Second Wave, and even the First wave!

Total Vancouver home sales increased by 202 units (6.4% -- 3,335 in 2011 vs. 3,122 in 2010).  However, the Distressed Property segment came in at 1,720 (includes the estimate for Flips), a whopping 51.6% of total sales.  This percentage compares to 50.2% County wide.

Affordability Hits Another High with Prices and Interest Rates Heading Down

A Buyers Market in Vancouver WA?Early in 2011 we saw home loan interest rates in the mid-4% range, and even hitting 5% for a moment; until they turned and fell to new historic lows just under 4%.  Combining the low lending rate with the falling prices, the Housing Affordability Index as reported by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research shows Vancouver and Clark County's housing as one of the most affordable areas in Washington's I-5 corridor!

Searching for Equilibrium and the New Normal

Any Recession, and more so in a major housing led Great Recession, the real estate market seeks out a new equilibrium -- which often seems like that mythical place (will we ever get there?) where the supply of houses will match the demand for them; with prices back on a slow and steady upward path.

Vancouver WA Real Estate Market Statistics for 2011For 2011 the transaction activity, as evidenced by this chart, shows a much more typical rise and fall of activity throughout the year.  We view this as some sense of purchase normalcy returning as buyers are being motivated to purchase based on their basic needs, and not by at artificial federal incentive program. (more charts and statistics available by clicking on the chart).

During the year, only two months saw the Median Days on Market go slightly above 100 days; and in the summer the median came close to 50 days.  Little by little, many of the key indicators of market health are showing improvement.

What's in store for 2012?  We'll be exploring that in a future updates -- Stay Tuned!
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Note 1: The type of Residential Homes reviewed are Single-Family Detached; Attached (Townhome-style); Condos and PUD.  Excluded are In-Park; Floating and other types.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Real Estate and Homes Sales Snapshot for Vancouver WA Jan 2012

Homes Sales in Clark County Still Challenged with Distressed Properties

This report is a snap-shot look at the Clark County WA real estate results for January 2012.  The table below shows the approximate number of listings Active, Pending and Sold at the end of the month.  The columns then break out the elements by Categories: Total Homes; Short Sales and PreForeclosures; Foreclosures (Bank Owned).
Clark County WA Real Estate market results for January 2012
Without too much analysis in this report (the more in-depth report is due out next week - stay tuned!) we see that the total Inventory is way down from prior years; with Closed Sales down (typical for January) to a near-term low; although the Pending Sales were quite strong.
For Home Sellers, this type of market is the near-term "normal."  Do you want to sell now at the market price or, bet that that the market prices won't slip further?  -- not an easy call.

For Home Buyers with a good source(s) of income this is probably the best time to purchase a house or investment property in decades.

The Distressed Property results are the most challenging to the housing recovery for the Clark County real estate market.  With Short Sales and Bank Owned properties combined running at 53% to 54% for Pending and Sold listings, the ability to heal the market quickly faces some tough hurdles.
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This report was prepared by John Slocum, Realtor & Broker with REMAX Vancouver WA.  The data provided by the RMLS is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.