Home Sales for Vancouver WA & Clark County with Seasonal Slowing for November 2011
Cooler weather has arrived, and
Home Sales
for Vancouver
WA and Clark County have also shown the typical seasonal slowing, with Closed Volume
lowering to 338 units, and
the 3-month rolling average sales price is now below the 12-month rolling average.
Pending Sales were again very strong - at 426 units.
With the strength of the Pending Sales, combined with a high level of home
refinancing activity occurring (to be sure, the-now-sub-4% home loan rates are
causing a Refi Boom!), we are clearly on track to beat last years sales levels.
Affordability Index for real estate and Homes in Vancouver WA is n0w at a 18+ year high
(as we've recently reported)! Thus, our near-term to medium-term
outlook for home buyers is Very Positive.
The information we use below is based on home sales
entered into the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of mobile homes.
For the first 11 months of 2011 there are 4,447 closed sales; compared to 4,359 for
the same period in 2010. If this trend continues for the last month of
2011 (and it should), we are confident 2011 will post a higher sales volume
compared to the total real estate sales in 2011.
This Chart Below (prepared by John Slocum of
Vancouver WA REMAX, our resident statistician) shows
the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month rolling average number of sales,
and the 12 month rolling average. This simple "smoothing" of the data
better helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in the Clark
County homes / real estate market.
The next chart below shows the Average home sales price trends (3 month and
12 month) for the same time period. As can be seen, the extended
higher level of purchasing activity is clearly providing support for home sales prices,
with the outlook as "Firming up."
Finally, the Level of Available Inventory is another important indicator of market
health. When we smooth the statistical "noise" of the "New" homes listing in the MLS,
we find a more meaningful inventory estimate. The result is our best approximation of a
Resold Home Inventory calculation of 5.6 months Clark County-wide (4.9 months
for the sum of Vancouver zip codes) -- a number that is
substantially lower than last year, and another indication that home prices
should remain firm with a similar level of demand. In contrast, the RMLS
is using a a number drawing from both the Resale and "New" home segments, and showing a total
Inventory of 6.8 months. Clearly, removing the New Homes provides a better
picture of move-in ready homes on the market.
Charts: For the
enthusiasts that like to examine charts, we have the sales results for the
Resold Inventory (excludes new homes) by Community that you may find helpful:
Clark County WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Battle Ground WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Camas WA Home Sales Results and Charts
La Center WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Ridgefield WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Vancouver WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Washougal WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Please let us know if you
have any specific questions or comments!
Disclaimer: as with any real estate
statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the
data was acquired. We deem the data and reports reliable but not
guaranteed.
